If you haven't noticed, Gavin Newsom is gearing up for a Presidential run in 2028. He's playing the normal bullshit card of, "Oh, I don't know if I am for sure yet," but he has made it pretty clear that he is. Newsom is term-limited in California, meaning he cannot run for Governor of the state again. Right now, he is considered the frontrunner in the Democratic Party. In the most recent Atlas Intel poll, Newsom is polling at 37%, followed by Kamala Harris at 21%, and Pete Buttigieg at 12%. These three candidates would be horrible for Democrats, but they have the most name recognition. I am going to break down why Gavin Newsom will end up winning the nomination in 2028, and why this is a horrible situation for Democrats.
Since President Trump took office for his second term, he has been in constant spats with Gavin Newsom. From the wildfires in LA to deploying the national guard, Newsom has been at the forefront of fighting President Trump on every move. He is doing this not because he actually cares, but because he is trying to rally the Democratic base so they vote for him when the time comes for the 2028 primary. Newsom has even started to copy Trump's style of tweets, and he is trying to be a fucking comedian while doing this. He is already making speeches in places like Texas and South Carolina, while his state is crumbling due to the failed policies of his administration. If this does not look like a future Presidential candidate, then I don't know what is. The fact that he is already leading Harris by 16% in the most recent poll shows that it is likely he will win the nomination. People in the party will cheer this, but the Democrats have other people they could put up that will have a better shot against a Vance or Rubio. I think Newsom being the nominee is a horrible situation for the Democrats, and the polls prove this.
While the Democrats have peddled people like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, and Zohran Mamdani (Not constitutionally eligible to be President) as the future leaders of their party, the Republicans have identified two strong candidates to be their future nominee: J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio. However, the Democrats have gone a different and stupid route of making far-left radicals the future of their party. This will not sit well with moderates in the next election, and they will end up losing because of it.
If the Democrats want a shot at winning, they need to put up someone like Josh Shapiro or Andy Beshear, a more moderate candidate who is a Democratic Governor in a state that went for Trump in 2024. Right now, if Vance and Shapiro were to square off in 2028, Shapiro is polling at plus 10. 10! If Newsom and Vance were to square off, Vance is polling ahead by 1, and Republicans tend to underpoll.
I think if the Democrats are serious about winning in 2028, then Shapiro is your guy. However, the Democratic Party has become a shit show of a party, and every decision they have made since the last midterm cycle has led to the demise you see today.
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